Markets

Private markets are resilient to the outcome of the election

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As the election unfolds, immediate effects on private market operations and deal-making are expected to be minimal, although a disputed result could cause a temporary slowdown in activity.

In a market note, Drew Shard, vice chairman, global head of investment strategy and co-head of direct equity at Hamilton Lane, said private market investors are likely to maintain a business-as-usual approach, especially given the improving transactional environment leading up to the election.

“Investing in private assets will continue to be attractive, especially given the likelihood of continued public market volatility and the potential for strong relative outperformance in private markets,” Shard said.

“However, depending on which candidate wins the presidency and the dynamics of congressional control, there will be different tactical options for overweight/underweight and possibly a wider dispersion of returns.” As such, the specific investment area, geography or theme will play a more impactful role on long-term performance across strategies.”

Addressing what he sees as “the biggest challenge with this election,” Schardt explained that investors thrive on certainty and this election poses significant challenges in that regard, with the potential for results to be delayed by litigation.

That continued uncertainty could deter an immediate deal, he warned, but added that a favorable interest rate and inflation outlook played in the asset class’s favor.

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"In the last 6-9 months, we have been given more clarity on interest rates and monetary policy globally and deal activity has started to pick up dramatically due to the favorable policy outlook," he said.

"While expectations surrounding this election held back some deals, otherwise you would have continued to see deal-making reflecting the good growth outlook in North America."

On policy and its impact on the asset class, Chard said both candidates have proposed inflation measures emphasizing America First initiatives, albeit with different approaches.

"Trump is clearly more extreme in that view. Ten percent universal rates [signalling potentially moving to 20 per cent] and 60 percent for China [potential to strip it of its most-favoured nation status]” he said.

"Harris has a softer/targeted view, but will probably still keep existing tariffs on imports and create subsidies for American manufacturing."

As such, Chard questioned whether growth prospects could outweigh the rising costs of goods and services from these policies.

"Our view is that this will be something that policymakers will need to watch -- if inflation starts to peak, it will be more modest, meaning that policymakers, the Fed and others can keep the rate steady, more -high for longer rates, with a smoother decline,” he said.

Private markets to continue to grow

Speaking to InvestorDaily this week, Andrew McVeigh, managing partner at Remara, said he expects private markets to grow naturally regardless of who wins the US election.

McVeigh said that "economic forces" drive the popularity and success of private markets—namely, that the efficiency of private markets exceeds that of public markets.

"I can't see whoever wins having any impact on growth in the private market sector," McVeigh said.

While volatility remains unpredictable, McVeigh said he expects some swings ahead, but noted that from a private equity perspective, it could be beneficial.

"I think private assets will potentially benefit from some of that volatility because one of the mainstays of private assets is that there is significantly less volatility," he said.

"The greater the volatility in the markets, the more it insists on private markets."

In the longer term, McVeigh warned that Donald Trump's pro-business agenda could lead to sustained higher interest rates, potentially reinstating inflationary pressures and putting pressure on areas of private markets, including private credit.



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