French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is bracing for a vote of no confidence that could topple his government just months after it was established. The crisis was caused by President Barnier’s decision to use the French constitution to force a vote on the controversial 2025 budget.

Article 49.3

Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows the government to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote, making it responsible for the legislation. However, many see this provision as undemocratic. Invoking Article 49(3) opens the possibility of a motion of no confidence. If such a motion is introduced within 24 hours and subsequently adopted by more than half of the members of parliament, the government will be forced to resign and the bill will be rejected.

Since its introduction in 1958, this clause has been used 89 times, with Prime Minister Michel Rocard in particular using it 28 times between 1988 and 1991.

Opposition

No single party holds a majority in France’s divided National Assembly.

Both parties, the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) and Marine Le Pen’s far-right party National Rally (RN), have filed motions, setting the stage for a decisive vote on Wednesday.

Together they hold enough seats to oust Mr. Barnier.

Barnier, who was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September, defended the move, saying it was essential to address France’s soaring budget deficit and ensure fiscal stability. “We have come to a critical moment when everyone must take responsibility,” he told lawmakers.

financial challenges

Under the European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), a country’s budget deficit (the difference between government spending and revenue) must not exceed 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in a given year. If a member state exceeds this limit, it could face scrutiny, financial penalties, or pressure from the EU to implement remedial measures.

At the heart of France’s dispute is President Barnier’s austerity budget to tackle France’s ballooning budget deficit, which is expected to rise to 6.1% of GDP this year, more than double the EU limit. The purpose is The plan proposes spending cuts of 40 billion euros and tax increases of 20 billion euros.

Despite concessions such as withdrawing plans to increase electricity taxes and reducing cuts to health insurance, the budget failed to gain support from opposition parties. Without meaningful fiscal reform, France’s borrowing costs could rise sharply and further destabilize the economy.

Political uncertainty is already disrupting financial markets, with long-term implications for investor confidence. On Monday, French 10-year bond yields rose to their highest level since the euro zone debt crisis.

What’s next?

If the no-confidence motion passes, Barnier’s government will collapse, making it the shortest term for a French prime minister since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. In that case, President Macron will face the challenge of appointing a new prime minister or establishing a “technocratic government.” (A temporary government in which decisions are made by experts rather than elected politicians) will manage the country until new parliamentary elections are held next summer.

President Macron cannot dissolve parliament until June 2025 due to constitutional constraints.

Le Pen, who is trying to position the RN as a viable ruling party, may choose to wait for the final budget vote on December 20 to readjust her position. She may want to preserve her party’s influence rather than risk the unpredictability of new leadership negotiations.