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A Trump presidency is a danger for capital managers, Scaramucci says

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A rules-based order established in 1945 has reliably funneled capital to the West, but according to his former White House communications director, Donald Trump’s stance on NATO threatens to destabilize that system.

Speaking at the ASFA Investment Summit on Thursday, Scaramucci criticized Trump for wanting to eliminate that order, which he says is vital to fostering innovation and economic stability.

“It’s a rules-based world order. Yes, we have our adversaries, but there are certain ground rules about how we work with each other. And that has led to a constant flow of capital directed at great innovation and great ideas in the West,” Scaramucci said.

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"So when you think about the U.S. Navy, as an example, it's done more in the last century to protect your economy than any other engine in the economy, because of the sea lanes for energy, for manufacturing, it's all very difficult to pitted against the current US Navy.

“So what I don't like about what he [Trump] wants to do is he wants to take that back.

A major concern for Scaramucci is Trump's proposed isolationist policies, including scrapping trade agreements and withdrawing from NATO, which ignore the benefits the US gains from maintaining such alliances.

Using South Korea as an example, the former communications director said what Trump failed to realize was that in exchange for deploying 14,000 US troops to the DMZ [Korean Demilitarised Zone]The US benefits from discounted goods and services from Korea.

"We're getting direct benefits from it, but he's failing to address it," Scaramucci said.

Scaramucci strongly supports the idea that the world needs a single military hegemon to ensure peace by suppressing global tribal conflicts, a role he says the US has historically performed well and could lose if Trump is elected.

“When someone like me explained something like that to Mr. Trump, he would laugh it off.

"Instead of listening to you like a good leader would...he'll try to run over you...Intellectual insecurity drives him, which makes him very dangerous."

As for China, Scaramucci said he thinks the US should tread carefully and focus on finding ways to co-exist with the Chinese to avoid escalating tensions and potential conflict.

"It's something that Mr. Trump doesn't think about the way he needs to, I think."

As for the upcoming election, Scaramucci believes Kamala Harris has a real chance to defeat the Republican Party, which is swinging further to the right, but to win she needs to appeal to people in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio , Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and parts of New York State.

"[These] people have become economically desperate and Trump's message is resonating with them," he told ABC 7:30 this week.

"Her economic agenda is actually working, and Americans may not feel it today, but she can go to the heart and explain to them what Joe Biden and she did that actually set up a good setup for the next four years ... but she has to go out and formulates this.

Back in July, before Harris took over as the Democratic nominee, AMP's Shane Oliver warned that Trump's views on tariffs, immigration and the independence of the Federal Reserve were deeply troubling.

"Taken together, Trump's policies point to further increases in the US budget deficit and higher inflation," Oliver said.

"His proposed 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports and 10 percent on all other imports would raise the average U.S. tariff from 3 percent to about 17 percent, or close to the 20 percent that has been in place since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930."

"That would potentially add about 2.5 percent to U.S. consumer prices." [as importers would seek to pass the tariff on or have to use more expensive suppliers] and takes about 0.5 percent of US GDP. And it's hard to see other countries not responding to the US declaring a trade war with tariff hikes of their own, which would compound the blow to growth as we saw in the 1930s.

Higher budget deficits and inflation, Oliver added, would be bad for both US and global bonds, which in turn would weigh on equity markets.

"Australia will be particularly vulnerable," he said.

Also at the time, Oliver suggested that Trump's prospects could change significantly if a strong Democratic candidate replaces President Joe Biden.


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