As anxiety surrounding the 2024 US presidential election and their impact on global stocks grows, a new quantitative analysis identifies stocks that could see significant movement if Trump wins.

In a white paper published on Thursday, Sydney-based Plato Investment Management revealed that while three Australian stocks were in the top 10 likely “fallers” if Trump won, no Australian stocks made the top 10 list of potential gainers.

The research – based on correlations between daily betting market movements and daily share price movements of the largest 10,000 companies in developed markets – identified gold miners De Gray Mining, Mineral Resources Limited and St Barbara Limited as those likely to suffer negative price movements in an event of a Trump victory.

Interestingly, five of the 10 companies listed by Plato as the biggest "crashes" are from the gold sub-industry.

According to Dr. David Allen, portfolio manager of the Plato Global Alpha Fund, a Trump presidency characterized by deregulation and tax cuts could boost economic growth, "creating a headwind for gold, which has traditionally been a safe haven asset."

Also on the list are renewable energy companies, including US-based NextEra Energy Partners and Canada-based Brookfield Renewable Corp.

"It's also no surprise to see renewable energy companies on the list, given Trump's well-known opposition to green energy," Allen said.

Among those predicted to gain from a Trump victory, Platon revealed that the list is made up entirely of US stocks.

Deeply cyclical U.S. energy companies, according to Allen, including Baker Hughes Company, Halliburton Company and Helix Energy, as well as regional banks such as Western Alliance, are likely to thrive, benefiting from reduced regulation and lower interest rates.

The top ten round out super companies like Nvidia.

"The inclusion of several semiconductor companies may seem surprising given Trump's mixed stance on Taiwan and potential trade restrictions." However, these companies have a high beta, meaning they tend to outperform the market when it goes up,” Allen said.

"If Trump's policies boost market sentiment, semiconductor stocks could post significant gains, assuming he refrains from punitive trade restrictions."

Reflecting on Plato's research methods, Allen said that while there are various expert predictions and expert insights on the subject, "these crystal ball observations can be seductive, but they often miss the mark."

"Instead of relying on experts whose views are often colored in red or blue, we applied a more objective approach through the analysis we regularly do as part of the Plato Global Alpha Fund's investment process to avoid excessive losses," he said.

“Global betting markets are constantly synthesizing all available information, including real-time survey data, and bettors have a financial incentive to get it right. We think this analysis provides one of the clearest, unbiased indicators of how stocks might react to a Trump or Harris victory.