Market analysts expect Trump’s policies to have a positive impact on cyclicals, energy and small caps, along with a negative impact on safe havens like gold.

Currencies

After Trump’s victory in 2016 The US dollar rose against major currencies, fueled by expectations of fiscal stimulus, tax cuts and infrastructure spending, all of which increased demand for the greenback.

Global X believes this could happen again with a Republican-led administration supporting the US dollar, especially in trade-exposed regions.

Similarly, MFS Investment Management highlighted the potential for further gains as tariffs tend to boost the currency, adding that gold and cryptocurrencies could also benefit from a more favorable regulatory environment.

Historically, MFS said, the currency of the country that imposes the tariffs tends to appreciate relative to the country whose goods are subject to tariffs.

Mining

Government bond yields have risen since 2016. and again on Thursday as markets assessed growth and inflation expectations tied to spending and tax policies.

Global X noted that while higher yields signal economic optimism, they also raise borrowing costs.

“This setup generally benefits financials, which benefit from a steeper yield curve, while longer-duration assets may face headwinds when yields rise. However, if there is fiscal moderation, the yield impact may be mitigated,” the fund manager said.

MFS similarly noted that a second mix of Trump administration policies could push U.S. government bond yields modestly higher, although trade restrictions and fiscal concerns could lead to higher term premiums due to uncertainty surrounding its unorthodox policies.

Shares

Small caps and cyclicals have been excellent performers since 2016, amid optimism about domestic growth and deregulation, with Trump initially delivering on pro-business policies.

Such sentiment today could favor sectors linked to US domestic growth, in line with broader market forecasts, Global X said.

Small caps can also benefit as confidence builds around economic growth, a prospect underpinning a more inclusive expansion.

Schroders noted in its post-election analysis that the US presidential election did not change its bullish stance on global equities, with a preference for US stocks.

"In his previous administration, Donald Trump focused on the Dow Jones as a barometer of his success," said Schroders Group CIO Johanna Kirklund.

Schroders is also bullish on Japanese stocks in this environment, which the firm says "remains cheap and given our view of a stronger US dollar should see the Japanese yen weaken."

"We are bearish on European and emerging market equities, which are likely to suffer from the coming trade war," said Sebastian Mullins, head of multi-asset and fixed income at Schroders.

"Australian shares are expensive relative to their own history and relative to other developed markets outside the US, so we favor global shares over domestic shares given this outcome."

Goods

Oil rallied in 2016, benefiting from Trump's pro-energy stance, which favored traditional energy sectors.

Such an approach today could support fossil fuels and infrastructure, Global X said, noting that potentially easing regulatory barriers would allow production to expand. External risks, such as OPEC decisions and China's slower economic recovery, however, could limit oil's upside potential, even with US policy support.

Safe havens

Gold fell after the 2016 election as investors turned away from safe-haven assets amid stronger risk appetite.

According to Global X, with renewed fiscal stimulus and pro-growth policies, a similar shift away from gold could occur as expectations of higher growth and inflation tend to reduce safe-haven demand.

However, tariff and geopolitical uncertainty are forecast to periodically support demand for gold as a hedge.