Markets

India and an unexpected winner poised to benefit from Trump’s protectionist policies

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Cameron Gleeson, senior investment strategist at Betashares, noted that India has taken a unique approach to development compared to many of its neighbors, which have traditionally relied on export-led growth models.

Conversely, speaking in a webinar last week, Gleason stressed that India’s growth is largely driven by domestic consumption, which could benefit the country if President-elect Trump follows through on his plan to raise tariffs, including a 60 percent increase of Chinese imports.

“It’s an inward-looking economy. Exports to GDP amount to about 20 percent, but if you look at where those exports are, they become the absolute world leader in services. Whether that’s through outsourcing services, business processes, IT consulting,” Gleason said.

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"Where India is still able to take advantage of the growth and demand for their services and where they are able to develop a bit of a price advantage over China for low-value manufacturing, India is probably the country that is in a pretty good position for foreign direct investment on both sides of the fence, and that it still has access to markets for its exports.”

Similarly, Amundi last week singled out India as one of two countries "most insulated" from the potential impact of President-elect Trump's policies, with Indonesia being the other.

"India and Indonesia are positioned as long-term beneficiaries as we expect continued reorientation and policy support to stabilize the Chinese economy and mitigate the potential negative impact of tariffs," the asset manager said in a new report.

Amundi's forecast predicts that sustained economic growth will continue in India, normalizing to approximately 6.5 percent in 2026, driven by a combination of domestic demand and investment.

Separately, Federated Hermes highlighted India's strategic partnership with the US in the Indo-Pacific region as one that could counter China's growing influence.

Under Trump, India and the US are expected to continue strengthening their defense ties and given that India's economy is "largely domestically driven", the impact of potential US tariffs is expected to be relatively " muted,” Federated Hermes said.

“Depending on the Trump administration's focus, there may be opportunities for increased economic cooperation in sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals and manufacturing. India's response to various developments will also play a crucial role in shaping the future of US-India relations,” the firm said.

The UK will also benefit

According to Gleeson, the UK could also benefit from these changes, potentially reaping the benefits of changing global trade dynamics.

“If you look at the US measure, the US actually has a trade surplus with the UK and if you look at UK exports to the US, 70 per cent of that is services. So financial services, travel, professional services and the like,” Gleason explained.

Conversely, the UK's biggest import from the US is crude oil, he said.

"If we see Trump 'breakthrough' stuff, reducing energy costs for an energy importer is critical, so I think the UK - cheap UK valuations and less trade exposure than the EU - is relatively well positioned to world stage,” Gleason concluded.


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