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Când RPC decide să meargă în Taiwan, este puțin probabil să se deplaseze într-un mod care să facă o decizie clară a intervenției SUA. În cazul în care China ar decide, cel puțin inițial, împotriva unei invazii la scară largă a acelei insule naționale, ar putea opta în schimb să încerce să „câștige fără luptă”. Beijingul ar putea face acest lucru folosind marea sa flotă de pescuit controlată de stat pentru a tăia insulele mai mici controlate de Taipei de la Taiwan, întrucât RPC masează acum bărci de pescuit pentru a extinde mările controlate de China pentru a revendica reciful japonez Senkakus și Whitsun în apele filipineze. Companiile chinezești de pescuit de stat – care fac parte din așa-numita „miliție maritimă” – servesc drept fronturi pentru serviciile de informații PLA. Folosirea flotelor lor pentru a opera într-o manieră undeva între pace și conflict în zona gri de control contestat din jurul Taiwanului ar permite Beijingului să testeze dacă SUA și aliații săi sunt dispuși să ajute la apărarea independenței insulei fără a fi văzuți să inițieze un conflict deschis. „Cipher Brief a devenit cea mai populară priză pentru foști ofițeri de informații; nicio mass-media nu este chiar o secundă apropiată de The Cipher Brief în ceea ce privește numărul de articole publicate de formatori. ” – septembrie 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 Nu. Accesați toate perspectivele experților centrate pe securitatea națională a Cipher Brief devenind membru Cipher Brief Level I.

Germany plans Beirut port reconstruction with conditions: Report | France News

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Germany will next week present a multibillion-dollar proposal to Lebanese authorities to rebuild the Port of Beirut as part of efforts to entice the country’s politicians to form a government capable of warding off financial collapse, two sources told the Reuters news agency.

A chemical explosion at the port last August killed about 200 people, injured thousands and destroyed entire neighbourhoods in Lebanon’s capital, plunging the country deeper into its worst political and economic crisis since the 1975-90 civil war.

According to two diplomatic sources with knowledge of the plans, Germany and France are vying to lead reconstruction efforts. Berlin will on April 7 outline a proposal that the European Investment Bank (EIB) has agreed to help fund that would clear the area and reconstruct facilities, they said.

One of the sources estimated EIB funding in the range of 2-3 billion euros ($2.4-3.6bn).

A senior Lebanese official confirmed that Germany was due to present a comprehensive port reconstruction proposal.

Neither the German foreign ministry nor consultancy firm Roland Berger, which the diplomatic sources said put the plan together, immediately responded to requests by Reuters for comment. The EIB was not immediately available for comment, Reuters reported.

‘Strings attached’

The two diplomatic sources said Lebanon’s political elite first need to agree on the makeup of a new government to fix public finances and root out corruption, a condition which donors, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are also insisting on before they will unlock billions of dollars in aid.

“This plan is not going to come without strings attached,” said one of the sources. “Germany and France want first to see a government in place committed to implementing reforms. There is no other way around it and this is good for Lebanon.”

Many people in Lebanon who lost property and loved ones in the blast on August 4, 2020, are still waiting for the results of an investigation into its causes [File: Hannah McKay/Reuters]

Eight months after the port disaster, many Lebanese who lost family, homes and businesses are still waiting for the results of an investigation into the causes of the blast. Lebanon’s economy is on the verge of collapse, with shoppers brawling over goods, protesters blocking roads, and businesses shuttered.

Foreign donors have said the new government must have a firm mandate to implement economic reforms, including a central bank audit and an overhaul of the wasteful power sector.

Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and President Michel Aoun have been unable to agree on a ministerial lineup. The outgoing cabinet, which quit after the explosion, has stayed on in a caretaker capacity.

The IMF has said there have been no formal discussions with Lebanese officials about a lending programme, only technical assistance with the Ministry of Finance and some state-owned enterprises.

Germany’s proposal

In addition to the port, Germany’s proposal would look to redevelop more than 100 hectares (247 acres) in the surrounding area in a project that the two diplomatic sources said would be structured along the lines of the post-war reconstruction of central Beirut.

As in that redevelopment, the plan would involve the creation of a publicly-listed company similar to Solidere, which was set up by former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in the 1990s and remains on the Lebanon Stock Exchange.

The sources put the project cost at anywhere between $5bn and $15bn, and said it could create as many as 50,000 jobs.

The Lebanese official said France and French ports and container shipping group CMA CGM were also interested in the reconstruction project.

One of the diplomatic sources noted that France had sent several missions, including one in March that included CMA CGM, that showed an interest in playing a role in the reconstruction. That mission focused on clear-up operations rather than a broader redevelopment, the source said.

France’s foreign ministry declined to comment immediately and CMA CGM declined to comment, Reuters reported.

The Lebanese official said getting the project under way would depend on the Europeans agreeing who would lead it.

“This is a European decision at the end of the day, because they have to decide on it among themselves. Then, when it comes to it, the Lebanese government can go ahead,” the official said.

The diplomatic sources said Germany wanted to work closely with France on the issue, but that Paris was pursuing its own initiatives for now.

“The irony of all this is that on the one hand the Europeans are talking about putting pressure on the political class, while on the other fighting each other over these potential contracts when the vultures are still circling,” one said.

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